✨ Public debut

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Whether you’re interested in investing in Circle’s IPO or not, today’s going to be a pretty big day for crypto. 

The big theme to pay attention to is what this means for other firms. You know how everyone and their mother launched a bitcoin treasury strategy? Well, we could see Circle open the doors for a slew of other IPOs. 

Empire co-host Jason Yanowitz said he spoke to founders who are thinking about going public. If founders are already mulling a public debut, a good first day for a company like Circle could pretty much decide for them.

Meanwhile:

• Bitcoin rose 11% last month thanks to “all-time high open interest,” according to Blockworks Research. 

• Total stablecoin value is up 2.6% over the past month to $236 billion.

• Circle’s fully diluted valuation, if you include everything and base it on last night’s pricing, is $8.1 billion.

🔵 Round and round

By the end of the day today, a stablecoin issuer will be public on the New York Stock Exchange. 

Last night, the stock priced at $31, well above the initial range of $24 to $26, so clearly there’s excitement for the IPO. Not to mention, it once again upsized its share offering. We’re now at 34 million shares, and it looks like the IPO is on track to raise over $1.1 billion.

I’d expect the first trade to happen mid-morning if not a bit after, taking the demand into account. So this morning, I’m going to do things a little differently and set the stage for today. 

The big challenge, ahead of the first trade, will be carefully balancing supply and demand, Bitwise’s general counsel (and former investment banker) Katherine Dowling told me. It’s something that Fineqia’s Matteo Greco highlighted to my colleague (and Forward Guidance author) Ben Strack as well. 

I almost hesitate to bring up Coinbase, because a direct listing and an IPO are two different beasts. But the bankers on Circle’s deal will be cautious to keep the stock’s price at a level where it can’t take off and then come crashing down to earth…which is a bit of what happened with Coinbase (the stock hit $429 before closing below its opening price of $328). 

“You really want that kind of Goldilocks pricing to kind of try to keep it within a narrower band,” Dowling said. “Obviously, that did not happen with Coinbase. So you want to avoid that scenario.”

A strong debut from Circle, eToro’s Bret Kenwell tells me, would be a “huge win” for bulls and crypto. 

It’ll also be a testing of the waters for crypto firms, Dowling added. So far, we’ve heard about the institutional demand for Circle’s IPO, but today will also test the retail demand. Because it’s oversubscribed, she wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a jump in demand which then tapers off. 

“I think for the long run, [Circle’s] a good horse to jump on. So I think you'll still see that demand out there for the folks that aren't getting involved at the IPO stage,” Dowling told me. 

Especially given that Circle has (perhaps without meaning to) timed its IPO pretty dang well. 

We have lawmakers mulling over a stablecoin bill over in DC at the same time Circle’s making its debut. While I’m not privy to the insider discussions around the IPO, I’d imagine the team is pretty happy about that. 

Dowling noted that Circle is just a sign of the evolution we’re seeing in crypto and marks how far we’ve come. Especially taking into account that Circle confidentially filed its initial S-1 back in January 2024. 

“The importance of that evolution is notable…because it's not just as simple as, ‘We had an administration change, so now we're pro-crypto.’ It really isn't just about that. You've had people…both sides of the aisle, have a much greater understanding of what [stablecoins are], how they work, and that this is a technological change, and I think that's been really helpful to that evolution and to getting where we are today,” she said.

“We’ve come such a long way from the Luna debacle, right?” Dowling said. And if nothing else puts this historical moment into perspective, perhaps that will.

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• The Ethereum Foundation is managing its treasury, looking to reduce selling while also backing DeFi. 

• The US seized crypto and domains tied to the BidenCash darknet marketplace. 

• The suspect in the French crypto kidnappings was arrested in Morocco.