♠️ The gambler

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Did you know your lifetime odds of being struck by lightning are 1 in 15,300?

Your odds of being born with a third nipple are better: 1 in 40.

Your odds of winning the Powerball lottery, on the other hand, are 1 in 292.2 million. 😔

If probabilities are your thing, you’ll love today’s takeover. Kate Irwin of The Drop newsletter has the inside scoop on how Kalshi has come to surpass Polymarket in popularity.

Your odds of enjoying it are 100%!

Kalshi passes Polymarket 

In the past month, Kalshi has blown past Polymarket and is now the most popular prediction market platform by volume, Blockworks Research data shows.

September saw a sudden uptick in Kalshi volume. In the three-week period from Sept. 6 to Sept. 27, Kalshi volume went from over $107.7 million in daily volume to $260.7 million — a 142% increase.

During that same period, Polymarket saw just modest growth, with daily volumes rising from $39.6 million on Sept. 6 to roughly $49 million by the end of the month.

To put that into perspective, the much-hyped Pokémon RWA trading markets saw $45 million in weekly total volume combined at their peak, but that’s less than what Polymarket alone saw in just one day last month.

Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket saw a steady upward trajectory in September, as both saw some peaks and dips. But the big change is that Kalshi’s seeing more money flowing through its doors than the once-leading Polygon-based platform.  

It’s not reasonable to conclude that Kalshi’s volume spike is due to exponentially more transactions, though — those numbers don’t line up. 

Polymarket saw anywhere from 307,000 to 600,000 daily transactions last month, while Kalshi saw a range of 155,000 to over 763,000 in a day by the end of the month.

More transactions can increase volume, but it’s also about how much people are betting each time. 

We’re not seeing volumes close to Polymarket’s late-2024 all-time high. But Kalshi’s surpassed its own previous ATH from that same period, which is notable and indicates continued US demand for such platforms.

Of course, Polymarket alone still saw over $1.43 billion in total volume traded in September, which is nothing to scoff at:

John Wang, Kalshi’s head of crypto, pointed out in a post that their platform went from being just 3.3% of the global prediction market share to 67% of it within a single year, also outperforming Myriad, Limitless and others.

Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such told me in an email that Kalshi’s $185 million Series C raise in June plus “a few strings of viral moments” this summer “catapulted us up the app store rankings” to help them come out on top.

He cited their wacky AI NBA finals ad, plus interest in betting on the NYC mayoral race, that kiss-cam incident, and the Pope as additional real-world events that helped them gain traction.

Football season also spurred signups, and those users have also since bet on other topics, too.

“The most recent Fed decision market did $91 million in volume, which was more than the 5 previous Fed markets combined. All of this growth in all of these areas compounds on itself,” Such said.

Of course, this trajectory could change, especially if Polymarket comes to the US in any official capacity. Kalshi is currently available in the US but requires traders to KYC and share their government IDs in order to use the platform.

And to play Devil’s advocate here, it’s hard to estimate how much of Kalshi’s surge is simply due to it being available to the wealthy US market.

Polymarket’s website says it will become available in the US “soon.”

Who knows? Maybe we’ll see another flippening then. 

— Kate Irwin

Speaking of prediction markets….

• At The Breakdown, Byron Gilliam writes about the rise of prediction markets and how they might influence the wider world of investing.

• Robinhood is betting on prediction markets as well, aiming to expand its predictions offerings into Europe.

• XOMarket is an up-and-coming prediction market that, unlike Polymarket or Kalshi, will be permissionless.

Clear writing isn’t just about words — it’s about clear thinking. That’s why Blockworks’ Byron Gilliam (author of The Breakdown newsletter) put together a free guide on how to write about crypto.

It’s not a list of “10 hacks for better headlines.” It’s hard-earned lessons from someone who’s been making sense of markets for years.

Download the guide here.

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